Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 209.795406 254.381186 309.415363 383.520193 482.557454 6.131465e+02 8.032871e+02
2025-06-29 159.509398 211.247012 283.363170 395.213783 572.264905 8.573611e+02 1.389350e+03
2025-07-06 128.317914 179.876025 257.761067 391.095318 630.486437 1.083170e+03 2.137135e+03
2025-07-13 115.781900 170.734993 260.054142 428.001318 770.116616 1.539145e+03 3.871992e+03
2025-07-20 105.675670 162.434199 260.503338 460.544619 917.844574 2.135934e+03 7.088288e+03
2025-07-27 96.666977 153.768550 257.626791 484.992437 1062.218516 2.876611e+03 1.309725e+04
2025-08-03 88.380202 144.635346 251.461237 500.056816 1193.737702 3.751865e+03 2.449154e+04
2025-08-10 80.537421 134.885421 241.823936 503.866433 1298.260641 4.700044e+03 4.583191e+04
2025-08-17 72.811756 124.135754 227.950074 492.957351 1352.676015 5.543347e+03 8.183908e+04
2025-08-24 66.088336 114.385719 214.409058 478.973836 1390.763939 6.410954e+03 1.509478e+05
2025-08-31 60.294820 105.733500 201.795404 464.012199 1418.730520 7.323179e+03 2.964021e+05
2025-09-07 59.214533 106.448591 210.321487 511.841611 1738.538626 1.151443e+04 2.748216e+06
2025-09-14 55.425742 101.226990 204.539442 516.824244 1887.643737 1.510229e+04 6.221169e+07
2025-09-21 52.730819 98.014406 203.108923 535.817145 2133.624621 2.183402e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 49.184581 92.507336 195.003152 529.957352 2244.425643 2.782716e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 48.507849 93.287847 203.182025 585.174272 2809.380934 5.420301e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 47.475932 93.111572 208.819271 634.353820 3439.643764 1.110992e+05 NaN
2025-10-19 46.033227 91.782303 211.033562 671.602649 4071.819306 2.344865e+05 NaN
2025-10-26 44.254538 89.430603 209.901220 694.681998 4647.042236 5.034246e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 42.164646 86.086290 205.279108 700.533685 5076.165377 1.043130e+06 NaN
2025-11-09 39.709197 81.593659 196.511046 683.793422 5220.299432 1.782959e+06 NaN
2025-11-16 37.362815 77.169917 187.361415 662.409233 5281.900384 2.977221e+06 NaN
2025-11-23 35.189059 73.000020 178.460820 639.622507 5297.787648 5.009406e+06 NaN